Presidential Election Prediction

Not really politics, just a little attempt at clairvoyance here. I am predicting Bush will win by an electoral vote margin of 276*-262*.

Of the ten battleground states,
Bush: Florida, New Mexico**, Ohio
Kerry: Hawaii***, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire**, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Notes:
(*) Colorado may be splitting its electoral votes for the first time this year (if a ballot initiative on 11/2 passes), so I am predicting Bush wins 6-3 there. Nebraska and Maine can theoretically split their votes but historically one candidate has always picked up all the votes; I'm predicting Nebraska to Bush and Maine to Kerry.
(**) The only two states that I'm thinking are going to go differently than in 2000 are New Mexico (which went to Gore by just 366 votes) and New Hampshire (which went to Bush by about 7200 votes while Nader picked up about 22,200 votes).
(***) Polls show Bush leading in Hawaii, but I think Kerry will pull it out in the end.